Assignment title: Discussion


The government of a certain country has installed a new device that monitors the activity of public officials working for an agency prone to corruption. There are only two types of public officials: corrupt and honest. A device called "Fire Alarm" indicates whether officials are corrupt or honest. Using the device, the probability that an official is charged with corruption is 1/2. The probability that an official is charged with corruption given that the official is actually corrupt is 2/5. The probability that an official is honest is 7/9. Based on the results provided by the device, an official has been charged with corruption. Use Bayes' Theorem to find the probability that the official is actually honest given that the device indicates that the official is corrupt. You may want to first find the probability that the official is corrupt given the corruption charges in order to find the probability that the official is honest given the corruption charges.