Accounting Basics HUMAN RESOURCE ANALYTICS Assignment topic: Critically analyse a given dataset and explain/analyse the key messages from that data Using statistics and an evidence-based approach please write 750-800 words on: 'What are the continuing and one-off drivers of the gold price? Focus on a seasonal trend from December – January over the last 10 years' • Obtaining data and evidence: Survey design and sampling Applied, real-world "experiments" • Analysis based on evidence used • Justify and find evidence that disproves alternatives (showing they don't have strong correlation) • Other driving factors that can be seen to create change – evidence • Critically analyse a problem/situation, propose a hypothesis (or hypotheses) • Find data to test the hypothesis • Determining Causality (John Stuart Mill) • Please provide all data and tables used • Please include all references (Harvard) Information: A causal relationship exists if: (1) the cause preceded the effect, (2) the cause was related to the effect, and (3) we can find no plausible alternative explanation for the effect other than the cause. • Counterfactual –something that is contrary to fact (what would have happened) We try to create approximations to the counterfactuals A key issue is getting the data, especially getting appropriate data • Determining the Cause In attempting to determine the cause, we look for changes in the characteristics that distinguish the problem (from what should have happened) • Relevant changes can be determined by examining each distinction/characteristic of the problem The (potential) cause must explain both what is there and what is NOT there • Thus, to test possible causes, we often try to disprove the cause Search for an exception to the possible explanation • Avoid giving situations where the cause might work • Stick to finding a cause that explains ALL of the distinctions Remember.... Detail and specify the problem • Be able to argue and justify and explain the most Likely cause a problem/deviation is caused by a change • Analyse and explore your results Dig and dig to find an answer • Use your common sense, e.g.: In determining "scenarios" or alternatives in determining why certain results appear as they do (and if they're "correct" or "realistic") • Has appropriately & thoroughly determined the drivers of the problem. • Employ a high quality analysis, with the key drivers of prioritised issues then synthesised into key insights. Helpful link: http://www.gold.org/investment/what-we-do