HOW CAN PAST EA LEVEL CHANGES INFORM US ABOUT FUTURE ANTHROPOGENICALLY DRIVEN SEA LEVEL CHANGES Rough notes to guide • Diagnosis encouraged • Rate has increased over the last 100 years • What is anthropogenically driven sea level? See AR5 IPCC projections change and compare with those of IPCC AR4 - what are the changes in two reports based on? o Are these estimates conservative? • How do we determine past sea level?. o Foraminifera? o Remove temperature signal? o Direct determination from corals. Uncertainties must be taken into account • Relative SLC (global mean which takes isostatic adjustment into account) o Therefore is it helpful? • Suggestion: o mid-Pleistocene warm period (cant constrain dynamic topography) - world with no ice, o Holocene case studies o Look at rates of change not actual levels.  Are they the same?  Are they faster?  How do they compare predicted rates?  o Equilibrium response – slow feedback e.g. SLR o Don't just consider next 100 years but beyond Tip: Make your own diagrams, where possible, using NOAA, or Pangaea