1 Supply Chain Forecasting and Decision Analysis 2015-16 Coursework Administration and Submission Requirements This coursework is worth 25% of the total module mark. It needs to be done in self-selected groups of up to 3 as registered on Moodle. Please submit your report to Moodle as a single report. Marks are deducted for late submission according to standard Cass Masters regulations. Submission is required by Thursday 24 March 2016 by 5:00pm. Each submission made should be entirely independent of any other submission. There are severe penalties for plagiarism. Use Harvard System for referencing, if appropriate. Requirement: Solve both cases. Conduct some meaningful what-if experiments in each case to investigate the robustness of your solution. Write a report for management explaining the findings from your spreadsheets (maximum 5 sides). The report should be followed by a Technical Appendix where you explain, to a technically-educated audience, what analysis you have done, why it is the appropriate choice and what assumptions you have made in applying the analyses to the respective cases. Grading criteria will be the same for each case and based upon:  Correct model choice and implementation  Managerial interpretation of results  Discussion of assumptions underlying analysis  Appropriate presentation Case 1: Delivery System Design at Bullseye Department Store (50%) Bullseye Department store is a discount retailer of general mechandise. The company owns 50 stores, but they are supplied from a single warehouse. Most of the mechandise received at the warehouse arrives in trucks. Trucks arrive at the warehouse at random with a rate of once every seven minutes on average. Eight loading docks are available at the warehouse. A2 single worker mans each dock and is able to unload a truck in approximately 30 minutes on average. When all the docks are occupied, arriving trucks wait in a queue until one becomes available. Bullseye has received complaints from some of the trucking firms that deliveries are taking too long at the warehouse. In response, Bullseye is considering a number of options to try to reduce the time trucks must spend at the warehouse. One option is to hire an extra worker for each of the loading docks. This is expected to reduce the average time it takes to unload a truck to eighteen minutes. It costs approximately £17 per hour in salary and fringe benefits to employ each additional worker. Alternatively, the company can continue to use a single worker at each loading dock but upgrade the forklift equipment workers use to unload trucks. The company can replace the existing forklift equipment with a new model that can be leased for £6 per hour and is expected to reduce the average time required to unload a truck to 23 minutes. Finally, the company can build two new loading docks for a capitalized cost of £6 per hour and hire two additional workers at a rate of £17 per hour to man these locations. Bullseye estimates its costs of £60 in goodwill for each hour a truck spends at the warehouse. Which, if any, of the three alternatives Bullseye should implement? Build a Simul8 model of the Bullseye situation and use it to verify the results you obtained above. Experiment with potential configurations that would be difficult to replicate with analytical queueing models. Case 2: DHL Supply Chain Case (50%) Case to be provided. Be sure to include in an appropriate place in your report: (1) The mathematical formulation of the problem (2) An excel file implementing the formulation 1 Supply Chain Forecasting and Decision Analysis 2015-16 Coursework Administration and Submission Requirements This coursework is worth 25% of the total module mark. It needs to be done in self-selected groups of up to 3 as registered on Moodle. Please submit your report to Moodle as a single report. Marks are deducted for late submission according to standard Cass Masters regulations. Submission is required by Thursday 24 March 2016 by 5:00pm. Each submission made should be entirely independent of any other submission. There are severe penalties for plagiarism. Use Harvard System for referencing, if appropriate. Requirement: Solve both cases. Conduct some meaningful what-if experiments in each case to investigate the robustness of your solution. Write a report for management explaining the findings from your spreadsheets (maximum 5 sides). The report should be followed by a Technical Appendix where you explain, to a technically-educated audience, what analysis you have done, why it is the appropriate choice and what assumptions you have made in applying the analyses to the respective cases. Grading criteria will be the same for each case and based upon:  Correct model choice and implementation  Managerial interpretation of results  Discussion of assumptions underlying analysis  Appropriate presentation Case 1: Delivery System Design at Bullseye Department Store (50%) Bullseye Department store is a discount retailer of general mechandise. The company owns 50 stores, but they are supplied from a single warehouse. Most of the mechandise received at the warehouse arrives in trucks. Trucks arrive at the warehouse at random with a rate of once every seven minutes on average. Eight loading docks are available at the warehouse. A2 single worker mans each dock and is able to unload a truck in approximately 30 minutes on average. When all the docks are occupied, arriving trucks wait in a queue until one becomes available. Bullseye has received complaints from some of the trucking firms that deliveries are taking too long at the warehouse. In response, Bullseye is considering a number of options to try to reduce the time trucks must spend at the warehouse. One option is to hire an extra worker for each of the loading docks. This is expected to reduce the average time it takes to unload a truck to eighteen minutes. It costs approximately £17 per hour in salary and fringe benefits to employ each additional worker. Alternatively, the company can continue to use a single worker at each loading dock but upgrade the forklift equipment workers use to unload trucks. The company can replace the existing forklift equipment with a new model that can be leased for £6 per hour and is expected to reduce the average time required to unload a truck to 23 minutes. Finally, the company can build two new loading docks for a capitalized cost of £6 per hour and hire two additional workers at a rate of £17 per hour to man these locations. Bullseye estimates its costs of £60 in goodwill for each hour a truck spends at the warehouse. Which, if any, of the three alternatives Bullseye should implement? Build a Simul8 model of the Bullseye situation and use it to verify the results you obtained above. Experiment with potential configurations that would be difficult to replicate with analytical queueing models. Case 2: DHL Supply Chain Case (50%) Case to be provided. Be sure to include in an appropriate place in your report: (1) The mathematical formulation of the problem (2) An excel file implementing the formulation