Assignment title: Information
a) Download a monthly data series from Datastream for the 20-year period of January 1997 to December 2016 for the following:
the share price from the company that has been randomly assigned to you,
the FTSE All-share Index (proxy for the market portfolio), and
the UK 3-Month Treasury Bill rate (proxy for the risk free rate of return).
Upload the data into PcGive and calculate the monthly log returns for your company and for the FTSE Allshare index. Explain clearly the method you used. Provide graphs and descriptive statistics for the log returns and discuss your results.
(20 marks)
b) Carry out an appropriate test to determine whether each log return series is stationary. Carefully explain the testing procedure and the importance of your results.
(20 marks)
c) Identify an appropriate univariate model for the estimation of each return series. Comment on the procedure adopted and pay particular attention to the identification, estimation and diagnostic stages of the modelling process.
(20 marks)
d) Estimate the beta value for your company using a 'CAPM model' specification and check the adequacy of the model using appropriate diagnostic tests. Formally test whether your company can be classed as defensive, neutral or aggressive. Comment upon your results in the light of relevant financial theory.
(20 marks)
e) Briefly explain what you understand by the terms 'bull market' and 'bear market'. Using the 8-year sub-sample period (between January 2000 and December 2007) of the FTSE All-share index, visually identify one bull market and one bear market. Using appropriate econometric techniques, test whether the beta value of your share is statistically different between two markets. Comment on your results.
(20 marks)
All results should be properly tabulated in the main body of the assignment along with any diagrams you deem appropriate. You should not include the raw PcGive or EXCEL output. This should be reformulated into your own tables. Keep your answers as precise and concise as possible. You should properly reference any relevant econometric literature (theoretical and applied) referred to in the text.
You should include the raw data and return series for the first and last years in the sample (i.e. 1997 AND 2016) in an appendix. Please do not include the full data set.