25728Fixed Income Analysis
Simulation 02 Submission Form
Email this completed form to me before 12:00 noon, Tuesday May 23, 2017
Introduction
You will have needed to download, read and digested Simulation 02 Instructions prior to completing this form.
You have been supplied with historical background economic data in the simulation 02 initial instructions. Furthermore, we discussed the effect that economic variables have on the term structure in Lecture 05 and in Lecture 07 we discussed the implications that exchange rate changes have on the holders of foreign denominated bond. You now ought to be able to relate economic factors to changing term structures.
Your task is to study the background data to assist you to undertake the following tasks so that you may complete and return to me this Simulation 02 Form.
1. Keeping in mind the economic data pertaining to country AA, forecast where you think the AA yield curvewill be situated by the end of the Year 1. (You should graph both the AA yield curve at the beginning of the period and your forecast end of period AA yield curve)
2. Repeat step 1 for country BB
3. Analyse the economic data of AA and BB in order to forecast the change in the AAD/BBD exchange rate. Explain the effect that your forecast change in the AAD/BBD exchange rate will have upon the allocation of your bond investment funds between country AA and country BB.
4. Specify a set of Year 1 portfolio weights for AA bonds and for BB bonds.
Please fill in the various sections of this form and return it to me.
Group Identification
Group Name:
Student No. First Name Last Name
Forecast AA country end of year one yield curve
You need to study the lecture material (Lecture 04 and any other references you may choose to consult) in order to forecast where yields are likely to be at the end of Year One.
Forecast BB country end of year one yield curve
Forecast exchange rate end of year-one
Portfolio Strategy
Explain your portfolio strategy on the basis of your forecasts above.
Specify a Set of Portfolio Weights
Note the sum of all of the AA weights plus the sum of all of the BB weights must equal 100%.
Bonds AA weights BB weights
Bond 01
Bond 03
Bond 07
Bond 10
Bond 15
Total
Good luck.