Table 1: Likelihood Scale Table Description Definition Almost Certain Is almost certain to occur within the foreseeable future or within the programme or project lifecycle Likely "Is likely to occur within the foreseeable future or within the programme or project lifecycle (Probability of occurrence between 50 – 75%) " Possible May occur within the foreseeable future or within the programme or project lifecycle Unlikely Is not likely to occur within the foreseeable future or within the programme or project lifecycle Rare Will only occur in exceptional circumstances Table 2: Risk Treatment Responses Description Definition Avoid (threat response) Typically involves changing some aspect of the project, that is the scope, procurement process, supplier or sequence of activities, so that the threat either can no longer have an impact or can no longer happen. Reduce - probability and/or impact (threat response) Proactive actions taken to reduce the probability of the event occurring, by performing some form of control, and reduce the impact of the event should it occur. Fallback - reduces impact only (threat response) Putting in place a fallback plan for the actions that will be taken to reduce the impact of the threat should the risk occur. This is a reactive form of the 'reduce' response which has no impact on likelihood. Transfer - reduces impact only, and often only the financial impact Shifting responsibility for the risk to another partly, who ultimately bears some of the consequences if the risk occurs; for example through insurance or contractual indemnification arrangements. This may be done though specific clauses in the contract. Accept (threat response) A conscious and deliberate decision is taken to retain the threat, having discerned that it is more economical to do so than to attempt a threat response action. The threat should continue to be monitored to ensure that it remains tolerable. Share (threat or opportunity response) Modern procurement methods commonly entail a form of risk sharing through the application of a pain/gain formula: both parties share the gain (within pre-agreed limits) if the cost is less than the cost plan; and share the pain (again within pre-agreed limits) if the cost plan is exceeded. Several industries include risk-sharing principles within their contracts with third parties. Exploit (opportunity response) Seizing an opportunity to ensure that the opportunity will happen and that the impact will be realised. Enhance (opportunity response) Proactive actions taken to enhance the probability of the event occurring, and enhance the impact of the event should it occur Reject (opportunity response) A conscious and deliberate decision is taken not to exploit or enhance the opportunity, having discerned that it is more economical not to attempt an opportunity response action. The opportunity should continue to be monitored. Poor or Non-existant Ineffectual measures, not communicated, sparsely implemented and of little value.