1
Let’s unpack this
Building a jumbo jet is very challenging
With enough practice anyone can learn to make
mayonnaise
Why did Cilliers say that building a jumbo jet
complicated whereas making mayonnaise is
complex?
Does it mean that all complex projects are
technically difficult?
Control to Chaos
Edge of Chaos/ Tipping point
creativity high /maximum innovation however need to
balance to avoid falling into Chaos
What are the implications for learning and innovation for the
project based on where it is located on this imaginary line?
What are the implications for management?
Control
Processes are clear.
Things go to plan.
Chaos
Processes are random and
rapid. Things don’t go to plan
Edge of Chaos
when things start to
get out of hand2
Non-linearity is the basis of emergence and
complex behaviour.
What are the implications for projects of non-linearity?
causal links are not obvious
causal links are distant in time and space
positive feedback exacerbates effects
affects our ability to understand and predict the behaviour of
the system.
makes it impossible to monitor all the interrelationships
between these different project elements, or to work out
which are the important elements and interrelationships
If complexity
characteristics (such
as non-linearity and
emergence) might
have an effect on our
ability to manage
some aspects of our
projects, how do we
prepare ourselves to
think differently?
Escher3
Recognising sources of project complexity
Structural (organisational) complexity
How does it all fit together?
It is so huge I cant keep track of it.
Where are the bottlenecks?
Technical complexity
How do we design it or make it?
How do we solve it?
Directional complexity
How do we work out, share and get
agreement over goals
What are our real objectives?
Temporal complexity
How do we ready ourselves to deal with
changes in external or internal constraints
over time?
(Remington and Pollack, 2007)
Caravaggio
Structural (organisational) complexity Structural (organisational) complexity
Caused largely by interconnectedness of multiple events
Problem
defined
Goal
planned4
Structural (organisational) complexity Structural (organisational) complexity
The knock-on effects of a risk triggered in one activity can have a profound
effect
Problem
defined
Goal state
no longer
achievable
Feedback loops in systems
Negative (balancing
or control) loops
Positive (reinforcing)
loops
Toilet flushing cistern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLv3SkF_Eag5
Example of a positive reinforcing cycle
Project leader
lies to project
team
Team member
discovers truth
Team member
tells colleagues
that leader has
lied
Team member in
dilemma whether
to tell truth to
colleagues or
confront project
leader
Trust in leader
reduces
Team member
approaches
project leader
Project leader
dismisses team
member’s
concern
Team motivation to
work under pressure
reduces
Construction example Construction example
Unforseen
site
conditions
Increased
structural
costs
Penalties
amounting
to principle
Damage
occurs
Delay in
construction
Labour
shortages
Decreased
interest
rates Temporary
building boom
Increased
labour costs
Change in govt.
policy relating
to temporary
guest visas
In creased
costs for
re-work
and repair
Project
costs
increase
Decreased
profit to
head
contractor
-‘ve
Need for
re-work
and repair
Wet
weather
Work
stops
Workers
laid off
Increased
vulnerability
to damage
Accident
on site
Penalties by
authorities
Contractor’s
insurance
premium
increases
Dispute over
claims (legal
costs)
Head
contractor
suffers cash
flow crisis
Unable to pay
claims from
sub-
contractors
Skilled
workers now
unavailable
Wet weather
continues6
Structural (organisational) complexity Structural (organisational) complexity
Positive feedback loops are a typical consequence of non-linear behaviour
Problem
defined
Goal state
even less
achievable
Non Non--linear activity (large scale) linear activity (large scale)
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
Activities Activities
already already
affected get affected get
worse worse
Positive
reinforcing loops
that will continue
to make things
worse until action
is taken
Original delay at E
Additional
problem at A
which affects B,
C, D, G, E, F,
causing a
reinforcing loop
New activities are affected7
Structural (organisational) complexity Structural (organisational) complexity
Positive feedback loops are a typical consequence of non-linear behaviour
Problem
defined
Goal state
even less
achievable
In a project team when we have high levels or
increasing levels of uncertainty what we might see?
Increased confusion
Inability to concentrate on the work at hand
Lowered levels of comfort
Increased fear
Lowered levels of motivation
people might give up because it is too hard
Lowers level of trust
In possibility of a reaching an end
In quality of the leadership
In capacity of yourself or your team members
People losing confidence in their social judgements
People being more likely to see processes as unfair
People being more likely to read changes as negative even if the
effects can be shown to be positive for them in reality8
Alternatively moderate or managed
experience of uncertainty might ...
Increase levels of creative problem solving activity
Have positive effects on team morale through
overcoming hurdles as a group
Have a positive effect on a person’s perception of their
own ability through dealing with difficult challenges
Help people to become more resilient in the long term
Help people to develop cognitive ability –particularly
cognitive integrative capacity
Uncertainty or ambiguity Uncertainty or ambiguity
Classification of complexity based on the sources of
complexity (Remington & Pollack, 2007)
Structural (organisational) (from multiple connections
leading to uncertainty –cause and effect difficult to relate)
Technical Technical (from uncertainty about how to do or make it) (from uncertainty about how to do or make it)
Directional Directional (from uncertainty/ambiguity about goals) (from uncertainty/ambiguity about goals)
Temporal Temporal (from uncertainty about change over time) (from uncertainty about change over time)9
Technical complexity Technical complexity
Caused by uncertainty about how to do or make it
Problem/solution space is dynamic until technical problems are solved
Initial
statement
of problem
Restatement
of problem
Solution
defined and
agreed
idea
generation
analysis
further idea
generation
analysis
What contributes to technical complexity?
Inadequate feasibility study (not enough initial
preparation)
Decision to implement too early –culture of
optimism overriding caution
Inability to measure accurately
Unknown technical field
Inexperienced designers
Confused on inadequate brief
Constraints imposed by traditional
procurement methods10
Directional complexity Directional complexity
Caused by uncertainty or lack of agreement about what to do
Problem/
solution space
(e.g. multiple
stakeholders/
interest groups)
True goal is either ill-
defined or not shared
time
Directional complexity Directional complexity
Caused by uncertainty or lack of agreement about what to do
Problem/
solution space
(e.g. multiple
stakeholders/
interest groups)
Most effort is spent in
aligning requirements and
getting to an agreed
goal so that work can start
time11
What contributes to directional complexity?
Differences in goals and objectives
Differences in how to get there
These differences are caused by differing ...
Values, morals, beliefs and ethics
Cultural and political differences
Behaviour and communication
Language and culture
Priorities and responsibilities
Hidden agendas
Personal agendas, leaders’ need for personal power
Temporal complexity Temporal complexity
Caused by uncertainty over time
time
environmental
impact
Re-defined goal
Original goal Problem12
What contributes to temporal complexity?
Unpredictable external environmental changes
Environmental, financial, regulatory, political, market
Unpredictable internal corporate changes
Mergers, changes in sponsor
Sometimes there is the knowledge that change will
happen but difficult to know precisely when it will happen
or what it will affect
More specifically these can result in
Compressed or changing deadlines
Radical changes in requirements and deliverables
Inappropriate procurement decisions
Lack of secure funding
Using the 4-types model create a list to help you in future to
recognisewhen a project exhibits complexity. Use Excel to
combine the lists as a resource for everyone.
AttributeWhat we might observeor hearfrom team
members or stakeholders
Very large WBS“This is enormous.” “Thereare too many tasks for
anyone to grasp.”
What will you observe or hear from team and
stakeholders that will help you identify whether or not
your proectexhibits complexity?13
Mapping the type of complexity
A simple tool (Chapter 8)
Structural
(number of
interdependencies)
Technical
(impact of unresolved
technical/design issues)
Directional
(ambiguity/lack of
agreement on goals)
Temporal
(expected time delays at
key project stages)
Low complexityMedium complexity High complexity
Low level
High level
Project phase: Definition14
Case studies
Teams
Each team will be given a case study and asked
to answer the following questions:
What type(s) of complexity can you identify?
Do the type(s) of complexity change during the
project life cycle?
What are the major management challenges?
Given this knowledge how would you have advised
management to proceed in order to mitigate the
affects of complexity?
Teams to report back