Assignment title: Information
Links to Estimation Techniques
Tim Shaughnessy, Chapter 7 -- Demand Estimation and
Forecasting, available
from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daiTjsnznjM
Matt Kermode, Explanation of Regression Results, Available at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5blVUkkjTM
Jason Delaney, Introduction to Multiple Regression, Available at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLpfEml4Vak
Session Long Project
PART 1
In 2006 the CEO of Bear Sterns, James Caynes, received a
compensation package of $34 million. The following year Bear
Sterns cost $2.7 billion to the taxpayers. In 2006, the CEO of
Lehman Brothers received a compensation package of $27 million.
On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The
collapse of Lehman Brothers is seen by many as the key event that
sparked the Global Financial Crisis. In 2006, the CEO of Citigroup,
Charles Prince, received a compensation package of $25 million.
Since then the stock price has fallen from $50 a share to $3.5 a
share. The CEO of Countrywide Financial, Angelo Mozilo, did even
better. His compensation package was $43 million. Angelo Mozilo
and two other top executives were charged by the Security and
Exchange Commission (SEC) with fraud. According to the SEC,
from 2005 through 2007, Countrywide Financial engaged in an
unprecedented expansion of its underwriting guidelines and was
writing riskier and riskier loans, which these senior executives were
warned might ultimately curtail the company's ability to sell them.
Countrywide Financial was the third biggest originator of subprime
mortgages and the nation's leader in subprime mortgage- backed
securities. The tragedy is that these individuals did not make
decisions that were in their companies' best interest. Why? What
went wrong? What caused the relation between the CEO and the
stockholders to go so badly awry? Discuss.
PART 2
An important component of this course is experience with analyzing
economic data at the managerial level. The computer is a perfect
tool for manipulating data and performing statistical analyses. While
the focus of BUS 530 is not on learning statistics, this course will
utilize and improve your computer skills with a computer assignment
designed to illustrate the interconnections between data, information
and managerial decisions.
The primary software will be Microsoft Excel and the Excel statistical
add-in: Data Analysis. Microsoft Excel 2010 (and previous
versions) provides a set of data analysis tools called Analysis
ToolPak which you can use to save steps when you develop
complex statistical analyses. You provide the data and parameters
for each analysis; the tool uses the appropriate statistical macro
functions and then displays the results in an output table. The
Analysis ToolPak is a Microsoft Office Excel add-in program that
is available when you install Microsoft Office or Excel. To use the
Analysis ToolPak in Excel, however, you need to load it first. Click
the Microsoft Office Button, and then click Excel Options.
Click Add-Ins, and then in the Manage box, select Excel Add-ins.
Click Go. In the Add-Ins available box, select the Analysis
ToolPak check box, and then click OK. (If Analysis ToolPak is not
listed in the Add-Ins available box, click Browse to locate it.) If you
get prompted that the Analysis ToolPak is not currently installed on
your computer, click Yes to install it. After you load the Analysis
ToolPak, the Data Analysis command is available in
the Analysis group on the Data tab.
In the Module 4 SLP assignment you are also asked to estimate a
market demand or a cost function (your choice) using the tools of
regression analysis and the regression software outlined above.
The first data set (demand for housing) is used to apply the hedonic
approach to demand estimation, while the second data set (demand
for cigarettes) is used to apply the classical approach. Finally, the
third dataset (cost of electricity) uses a well known dataset to
estimate the cost of electricity production. In all cases the data is
cross-sectional data.
The estimation of demand follows two approaches:
the classical approach, whereby the quantity demanded of a product
is explained by its own price, the prices of related goods (complements
and substitutes), income, tastes and preferences, and the size of the
population, among others;
the hedonic approach, whereby the price of an asset (car, house) is
explained by the characteristics of the asset itself (i.e., the price of
housing depends on the number of bedrooms, the number of
bathroom, the view from the house (using a dummy variable: 1 = view,
0 = no view), the square footage of the house, the square footage of
the lot, etc).
PART 2: Assignment
You are given the data on housing. The data are collected from the
real estate pages of the Boston Globe during 1990. These are
homes that sold in the Boston, MA area. The source of the data is
Wooldridge (2009) Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach,
4 th Edition, Cengage
VARIABLES
1. price price, in dollars
2. assess assessed value, in dollars
3. bdrms number of bedrooms
4. lotsize size of lot, square feet
5. sqrft size of house, square feet
Cut and paste in Excel the data set. Then, in Excel, obtain the
logarithmic transformation of the following variables using the Excel
function =LOG( . )
6. lprice log(price) : dependent variable
7. lassess log(assess) : independent variable
8. llotsize log(lotsize) : independent variable
9. lsqrft log(sqrft) : independent variable